Draft National Planning Framework (NPF) Revision – Population Projections

On the 10th of July 2024 the Government published a draft of the first 6-year revision of the National Planning Framework (NPF) here. It is important that the final NPF projections are not taken as being caps on housing targets in regional and local housing supply targets which should be confirmed as being the minimum level of housing supply that is needed, given the relatively conservative baseline population projections in the draft NPF revision.

This Planning Insight focuses on the changes reflected in the draft NPF revision in respect of projected population growth targets:

• The draft NPF Revision provides for a baseline population growth target of an additional 950,000 people over the 2022 Census baseline by 2040 which would account for almost 6.1 million people in the State and the uplift in population growth between the original NPF, high growth scenario, and draft revision is c. 250,000 people.
• The projections in the Draft NPF Revision are based on the ESRI’s July 2024 publication ‘Population projections, The Flow of New Households and Structural Housing Demand’, which also included a ‘High Migration’ projection scenario which estimates the national population to grow to c. 6.308 million: an increase of c. 1.158 million people by 2040.
• The CSO (Population and Migration Estimates – August 2023 and 2024) estimates that the population of the State increased by c. 196,300 people (or 3.7%) between April 2022 and April 2024 which suggests that c. 78% of the draft revision NPF 250,000 population uplift for 2022-2040 has already been reached in the past 2 years.
• Ireland’s population increased by 387,274, or 1.312% year-on-year, between Census 2016 and Census 2022 – if this growth rate were to continue, it would result in a total national population of c. 6.51 million people by 2040, equating to an increase of 1.36 million people on the 2022 census. This compares to an annual rate of 0.95% for the draft NPF revision.
• If the 2016-2022 growth rates were continued, the population in 2040 would be c. 411,000 people higher than provided for in the draft NPF baseline projection.

Population Projections under the Current NPF, Draft NPF Revision, ESRI (Baseline and High Migration Scenarios) and observed Intercensal Growth Scenario

If you would like to discuss the draft national planning framework revision (population projections) further, please contact us below.